Lier Chemical (002258) 长城证券·2025-05-19 07:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][22]. Core Views - The agricultural chemical industry is currently at a low point, and the company's performance is under short-term pressure. However, the company is expected to gradually strengthen its advantages in the industrial chain [1][10]. - The company is focusing on continuous investment in project construction, which is anticipated to enhance its market competitiveness [14][11]. - The potential acquisition of Shandong Huimeng is expected to further expand the company's industrial chain, enhancing overall competitiveness [12][14]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be 73.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.87% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.15 billion yuan, down 64.34% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated to recover slightly to 74.67 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.04 billion yuan, reflecting an 87.4% year-on-year increase [13][14]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is expected to be 313 million yuan, a decline of 66.70% year-on-year [4][15]. Sales and Market Performance - In 2024, the company's sales volume for agricultural raw materials is expected to be 59,300 tons, an increase of 7.72% year-on-year, while the sales volume for agricultural formulations is projected to be 70,000 tons, up 16.14% year-on-year [3][2]. - Despite the increase in sales volume, the company's revenue and profit are under pressure due to declining prices for both raw materials and formulations [3][2]. Cost and Expense Analysis - The company's selling expenses are expected to rise by 16.79% year-on-year, with a selling expense ratio of 1.88% [3]. - Management expenses are projected to decrease by 19.45% year-on-year, while financial expenses are expected to increase significantly by 105.28% [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 11.1% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027, with net profit growth of 26.4% and 26.8% respectively [14][13]. - The report suggests that the agricultural chemical industry is likely to recover as market inventory is digested and outdated production capacity is eliminated, benefiting leading companies with abundant registration resources [10][12].