天味食品：低谷已过，价值凸显，上调至“强推”评级-20250519

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Tianwei Foods (603317) to "Strong Buy" [2][8] Core Views - The low point has passed, and the value of the company is becoming evident, with expectations for gradual recovery in operations throughout the year [2][8] - The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth in the medium to long term, driven by both internal improvements and external acquisitions [8][9] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2024A: 3,476 million - 2025E: 3,666 million - 2026E: 4,033 million - 2027E: 4,426 million - Year-on-year growth rates: 10.4% (2024A), 5.5% (2025E), 10.0% (2026E), 9.8% (2027E) [3][9] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024A: 625 million - 2025E: 629 million - 2026E: 704 million - 2027E: 801 million - Year-on-year growth rates: 36.8% (2024A), 0.7% (2025E), 11.9% (2026E), 13.8% (2027E) [3][9] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024A: 0.59 - 2025E: 0.59 - 2026E: 0.66 - 2027E: 0.75 [3][9] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 18 (2024A), 18 (2025E), 16 (2026E), 14 (2027E) - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 2.5 (2024A), 2.5 (2025E), 2.4 (2026E), 2.3 (2027E) [3][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on product innovation and market expansion, particularly in hot pot base materials and Chinese-style seasonings, to capture a broader consumer base [8][9] - The company aims to enhance its market share through new product iterations and targeting younger demographics [8][9] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a high dividend payout ratio, which has exceeded 90% in recent years, providing a stable cash flow and attractive yield for investors [8][9]