通威股份（600438）：2024年业绩符合预期，保持成本领先地位

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 meets expectations, maintaining a cost leadership position in the industry [1] - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant operational pressure due to a decline in prices across all segments, with polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules experiencing price drops of 39%, 50%, 40%, and 29% respectively [4][6] - The company has established a high-purity polysilicon production capacity exceeding 900,000 tons and solar cell production capacity exceeding 150 GW in 2024 [4] - The company continues to reduce costs and improve efficiency, maintaining its industry-leading cost advantage [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 919.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -70.39 billion yuan [8][9] - The forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 666 billion yuan, 738 billion yuan, and 797 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -27.6%, +10.2%, and +8.6% [7][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -34.7 billion yuan in 2025, -3.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 21.4 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting significant recovery in profitability by 2027 [7][9] - The gross margin is expected to be 6.4% in 2024, dropping to 1.5% in 2025, and gradually recovering to 8.9% by 2027 [9] Production and Market Position - The company is expected to sell 467,600 tons of polysilicon in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.76%, capturing approximately 30% of the national market share [4] - The sales volume of solar cells is projected to be 87.68 GW in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 8.70%, achieving a global market share of about 14% [4] - The sales volume of modules is expected to reach 45.71 GW in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.93% [5]