Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Goldman Sachs·2025-05-19 08:55Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's activity data weakened sequentially in April, reflecting the negative impact of increased US tariffs and soft domestic demand, with a Q2 real GDP growth forecast of 5.0% year-on-year appearing on track despite mixed activity data [1][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Production - Industrial production (IP) growth declined to 6.1% year-on-year in April from 7.7% in March, slightly above market consensus of 5.7% due to trade re-routing [2][10] - Sequentially, IP contracted by 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized in April [10] - Output growth in computer-related industries slowed significantly, with smartphone and computer output growth dropping to -6.4% and -2.2% year-on-year, respectively [10] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell to 3.6% year-on-year in April from 4.3% in March, primarily due to slower infrastructure and property investment growth [11] - Infrastructure investment growth declined to 7.1% year-on-year, while property investment saw a drop of 11.3% year-on-year in April [11] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year-on-year in April from 5.9% in March, below market consensus of 5.9% [4][12] - Online goods sales, offline goods sales, and restaurant sales revenue growth moderated to 6.1%, 4.7%, and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively [13] Services Industry - The Services Industry Output Index growth remained stable at 6.0% year-on-year in April, down from 6.3% in March [14] - Sequentially, the index fell by 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized in April [14] Property-Related Activity - Property sales growth slowed to -2.1% year-on-year in April from -1.0% in March, with significant declines in new home starts and completions [15] - Real estate investment dropped by 11.3% year-on-year in April [12][15] Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% in April from 5.2% in March, with the unemployment rate for migrant workers also decreasing to 4.8% [16]