Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Gushengtang with a target price of HKD 67.35 per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 33.10 [2][5]. Core Insights - The number of medical visits in Q1 2025 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.21 million, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [3][10]. - The company is expected to see significant performance contributions in 2025 from mergers and acquisitions (M&A), artificial intelligence (AI), and in-hospital preparations [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 3.79 billion and RMB 4.63 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.3% and 22.2% [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at RMB 480 million for 2025 and RMB 580 million for 2026, with growth rates of 20.6% and 21.0% [5][11]. - The company maintains a gross profit margin of 30.1% and a return on equity (ROE) projected to increase from 11.0% in 2023 to 15.3% in 2026 [5][9]. Growth Drivers - The company has signed equity transfer agreements with four domestic targets in Q1 2025, with an average valuation of 0.8-1x price-to-sales (PS) [4][13]. - An AI initiative is set to launch in July, expected to contribute RMB 30 million to annual performance by creating digital twins of leading TCM specialists [4][13]. - Plans to introduce 10 new in-hospital preparations in 2025, with anticipated revenue exceeding RMB 50 million [4][13]. Market Position - Gushengtang is recognized as a leading domestic chain in traditional Chinese medical services, benefiting from strong brand power and resilient performance [5][11].
固生堂（02273）：25Q1就诊人次同比增长12.7%，并购+AI+院内制剂有望贡献业绩增量