Macro Strategy - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the "loan off-season" and emphasizes the observation of the effects of monetary easing, with May to June being a critical period for assessing the impact of incremental policies [1][6][7] - Financial data from April shows an increase in social financing scale, with new social financing of 16.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.61 trillion yuan, and a recovery in the growth rate of social financing stock to 8.7% [6][7] - The report highlights that the weighted average interest rate for new loans in April was approximately 3.2%, which is about 50 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a continued low-interest environment [6][7] Fixed Income - The report discusses the current state of China's sci-tech bond market, noting that it is in its early development stage compared to overseas markets, characterized by a smaller market size, shorter issuance periods, and higher ratings [2][8] - It forecasts that as the sci-tech bond market matures, there will be rapid growth in market size and a diversification of issuance entities, particularly from high-tech industries, which will better match the long R&D cycles of innovative enterprises [2][11] Industry Analysis - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a significant upturn, with excavator sales in April increasing by 18% year-on-year, indicating a strong growth trend [3][12] - The report notes that domestic excavator sales reached 49,109 units in the first four months of 2025, a 32% increase year-on-year, driven by factors such as the replacement of aging equipment and improved funding conditions [12][13] - It recommends several companies in the engineering machinery sector, including Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and LiuGong, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing upcycle in the industry [3][12] Company Recommendations - The report highlights Beike-W (02423.HK) as a leading player in the domestic real estate brokerage industry, with Q1 2025 revenue of 23.3 billion yuan, a 42.4% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit slightly exceeding expectations [4][14] - The company is projected to see continued growth in its second-hand housing business, driven by an increase in transaction volume and market coverage [4][15] - The report maintains profit forecasts for Beike-W for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 9.7 billion, 11.62 billion, and 13.62 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [4][15]
东吴证券晨会纪要-20250519