必和必拓（BHP）：詹森第一阶段按计划进行，第二阶段进展缓慢？

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to BHP with an unchanged price target of A$40 per share [4][5]. Core Insights - BHP is focusing on its organic growth pipeline for potash and copper, increasing capital expenditure from$7 billion in FY23 to approximately $10 billion in FY25, and expects it to stabilize around$11 billion in the medium term [1][3]. - The Jansen potash project is progressing well, with Stage 1 currently 66% complete and on track for first production by the end of CY26, while Stage 2 is 8% complete and targets production in FY29 [2][8]. - The Jansen project is expected to drive approximately 25% Group EBITDA growth through FY30, with an anticipated free cash flow of around $1.8 billion from FY33 at a potash price of$325 per ton [3][13]. Financial Overview - BHP's revenue projections show a decline from $65.1 billion in FY22 to an estimated$49.6 billion in FY25, with net earnings expected to drop from $21.3 billion in FY22 to$9.8 billion in FY25 [4][53]. - The Jansen project is projected to generate an internal rate of return (IRR) of approximately 11% with a net present value (NPV) of around $8 billion based on a 2025 look-forward basis [13][19]. - The operating costs for the Jansen project are estimated at$105-$120 per ton, with a capital intensity of$1,050 per ton for Stage 2, which is lower than Stage 1 [24][40]. Project Progress - The Jansen project is expected to add 8.5 million tons per annum (Mtpa) of potash to the market by the end of the decade, representing about 10% of global supply [2][3]. - Significant construction progress has been observed, particularly in the processing plant, with expectations for accelerated progress as seasonal conditions improve [11][7]. - BHP has maintained its capital expenditure guidance for the Jansen project despite inflationary pressures, with the first tonnes from Stage 1 targeted for late 2026 [8][39].