KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 华创证券·2025-05-20 02:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai with a target price of 2600 CNY [1][4]. Core Views - The management conveyed confidence in the company's quality, culture, and foundational strength during the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting, emphasizing the resilience of Moutai's brand and its ability to adapt through market cycles [2][4]. - The company is focusing on strategic initiatives to navigate current challenges, including enhancing customer engagement, service upgrades, and international expansion [4][4]. - The report highlights Moutai's strong performance in the first quarter, indicating that the company is well-positioned to maintain its leadership in the liquor industry [4][4]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 174.144 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7%. This is expected to grow to 190.775 billion CNY in 2025, representing a 9.6% increase [4][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 86.228 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 15.4%, increasing to 94.679 billion CNY in 2025 [4][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 68.64 CNY for 2024, rising to 75.37 CNY in 2025 [4][4]. Market Position - Guizhou Moutai's market capitalization is approximately 1939.569 billion CNY, with a low debt ratio of 19.04%, indicating strong financial health [4][4]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin of around 91.9% to 92.2% over the forecast period, showcasing its pricing power and operational efficiency [4][4].