King's Luck(SH:603369) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-20 03:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [8][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 at 126 billion, 138 billion, and 151 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9%, 9%, and 10% [6][7]. - The company’s net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 37 billion, 40 billion, and 45 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8%, 10%, and 11% [6][7]. - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance, with a reported revenue of 50.99 billion yuan and a net profit of 16.44 billion yuan for Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.17% and 7.27% respectively [2][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 115.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.31%, and a net profit of 34.12 billion yuan, up 8.80% [2][3]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.74%, a decrease of 3.60 percentage points from the previous year, while the net margin was 29.55%, down 1.50 percentage points [5][6]. - The company’s cash flow from operations for Q1 2025 increased by 42.50% to 14.27 billion yuan [5]. Market Dynamics - The company’s white liquor business generated revenue of 114.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a volume increase of 20% but a decrease in price per ton by 4% [3]. - The company has expanded its dealer network significantly, with an increase of 248 dealers to a total of 1,267, although the overall quality of dealers has slightly declined [4][6]. - The company’s revenue from provincial markets grew by 13.32% in 2024, while revenue from outside the province surged by 27.37% [4]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 16X, 14X, and 13X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to expected earnings growth [6][7]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 57.55 billion yuan, with a current share price of 46.16 yuan [9][8]. Summary of Financial Data - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 10,100.38 million yuan in 2023 to 15,094.46 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.56% [7][13]. - The net profit is projected to increase from 3,136.04 million yuan in 2023 to 4,452.49 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 10.51% [7][13].