KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 华创证券·2025-05-20 02:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai with a target price of 2600 CNY [1][4]. Core Views - The management conveyed confidence in the company's quality, culture, and foundational strength during the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting, emphasizing the resilience of Moutai's brand and its ability to navigate through market cycles [2][8]. - The company is focusing on strategic initiatives to adapt to current challenges, including enhancing customer engagement, service upgrades, and international expansion [8][9]. - The report highlights Moutai's strong performance in the first quarter, indicating its leading position in the liquor industry and the stabilization of product prices, which further enhances investment certainty [8][9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Guizhou Moutai are as follows: - 2024: 174,144 million CNY - 2025: 190,775 million CNY (growth of 9.6%) - 2026: 207,395 million CNY (growth of 8.7%) - 2027: 223,719 million CNY (growth of 7.9%) [4][10]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 86,228 million CNY - 2025: 94,679 million CNY (growth of 9.8%) - 2026: 103,603 million CNY (growth of 9.4%) - 2027: 112,623 million CNY (growth of 8.7%) [4][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 68.64 CNY - 2025: 75.37 CNY - 2026: 82.47 CNY - 2027: 89.65 CNY [4][10]. Market Position - Guizhou Moutai's market capitalization is approximately 19,395.69 billion CNY, with a total share capital of 125,619.78 million shares [5][10]. - The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2%, indicating strong financial health and stability [10].