Seazen(601155)2025-05-20 02:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Accumulate" [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The company's commercial operations remain stable, while real estate sales continue to decline significantly [2][3] - The company has a relatively tight cash position, with non-restricted cash amounting to approximately 6.596 billion yuan and a short-term debt of about 11.99 billion yuan, resulting in a cash-to-short-debt ratio of approximately 0.55 [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Commercial Operations - As of the end of 2024, the company has established 200 Wuyue Plazas across 136 cities, with 173 operational commercial properties and an overall occupancy rate of about 98% [2] - In 2024, the total foot traffic for Wuyue Plazas reached approximately 1.77 billion visits, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with total sales of 90.5 billion yuan, also a 19% increase year-on-year [2] - The commercial operations segment achieved revenue of 12.03 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with a gross margin of approximately 70.2% [2] Real Estate Sales - In 2024, the company recorded a total sales amount of 40.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.1%, with a total sales area of 5.388 million square meters, down 44.4% year-on-year [3] - For the first four months of 2025, the company achieved a contract sales amount of 6.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 56.2%, with a sales area of 886,000 square meters, down 59.0% year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 810 million yuan and 970 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.49 billion yuan [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.36 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.66 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 36, 30, and 20 times [4][5]