零跑汽车：More positive on FY25E after 1Q25 beat-20250520

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Leapmotor, with a target price raised from HK$50.00 to HK$72.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.8% from the current price of HK$62.20 [1][3]. Core Insights - Leapmotor's 1Q25 net loss of RMB130 million was better than expected, attributed to higher average selling price (ASP) and gross profit margin (GPM), along with contributions from strategic cooperation [1][9]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven at the net level in FY25E, followed by a significant profit increase to RMB1.2 billion in FY26E [1][9]. - Sales volume forecast for FY25E has been raised by 15% to 0.55 million units, reflecting stronger-than-expected sales performance [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB58,993 million, with a year-on-year growth of 83.4% [2][11]. - Gross margin is expected to improve to 12.1% in FY25E, up from 11.2% previously estimated [11][12]. - Net profit is projected to turn positive at RMB118 million in FY25E, with further growth anticipated in FY26E [2][11]. Share Performance - Leapmotor's stock has shown significant performance, with a 1-month increase of 38.4% and a 6-month increase of 106.3% [5]. - The market capitalization stands at HK$83,159.3 million, with an average turnover of HK$695.7 million over the past three months [3][5]. Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include Mr. Jiangming Zhu and his concert parties holding 25.0%, and Stellantis N.V. with a 21.3% stake [4].