KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 长江证券·2025-05-20 04:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 26.850 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.64% year-on-year [2][4][10] - The total revenue plus contract liabilities for Q1 2025 was 50.639 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 20.91% [2][4] - Direct sales accounted for a significant portion of revenue, reaching 23.22 billion yuan, a growth of 20.19%. Wholesale revenue was 27.36 billion yuan, up 3.93%. The i-Moutai segment contributed 5.87 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.88%, indicating a return to positive growth after previous declines [10] - The company's profitability remains stable, with a net profit margin of 52.19%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 92.11%, while the expense ratio increased by 0.24 percentage points to 6.14% [10] - The company continues to implement reforms and maintain steady growth. Despite a slight decline in wholesale prices, the company retains strong pricing power, suggesting a robust long-term growth outlook. The three-year dividend plan is also expected to enhance shareholder value [10] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 75.90 yuan and 82.61 yuan, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21 and 19 times [10] Financial Data - As of May 12, 2025, the current stock price is 1,604.50 yuan, with a total share capital of 1.2562 billion shares. The net asset value per share is 205.67 yuan [7] - The highest and lowest stock prices in the past 12 months were 1,910 yuan and 1,246 yuan, respectively [7] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 174.144 billion yuan, with projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 191.849 billion yuan, 208.529 billion yuan, and 225.264 billion yuan, respectively [15]