King's Luck(SH:603369) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-20 05:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [8][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 at 126 billion, 138 billion, and 151 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9%, 9%, and 10% [6][7]. - The company’s net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 37 billion, 40 billion, and 45 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8%, 10%, and 11% [6][7]. - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance, with a reported revenue of 50.99 billion yuan and a net profit of 16.44 billion yuan for Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.17% and 7.27% respectively [2][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 115.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.31%, and a net profit of 34.12 billion yuan, up 8.80% [2][6]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.74%, a decrease of 3.60 percentage points from the previous year, while the net margin was 29.55%, down 1.50 percentage points [5][6]. - The company’s cash flow from operations for Q1 2025 increased by 42.50% to 14.27 billion yuan [5]. Market Dynamics - The company’s white liquor business generated revenue of 114.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a volume increase of 20% but a decrease in price per ton by 4% [3]. - The company has expanded its dealer network significantly, with an increase of 248 dealers to a total of 1,267, although the quality of the dealer network has slightly declined [4][6]. - The company’s revenue from provincial markets grew by 13.32% in 2024, while revenue from outside the province increased by 27.37% [4]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 16X, 14X, and 13X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][7]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 57.55 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1,246.80 million shares [9]. Summary of Financial Data - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 10,100.38 million yuan, with a growth rate of 28.05%, and net profit at 3,136.04 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 25.30% [7][13]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 5,060.32 million yuan, with a corresponding increase in profitability metrics [7][13].