联邦制药（03933）：UBT251已授权给诺和诺德，动保、胰岛素稳健增长

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.77 per share, based on a current price of HKD 13.2 [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in its insulin and animal health businesses, supported by a strong pipeline of innovative drugs, particularly in the weight loss sector with UBT251 showing promising clinical results [2][4][6][7]. - The overall revenue forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at HKD 145.24 billion, HKD 139.87 billion, and HKD 145.80 billion, with a net profit of HKD 29.07 billion, HKD 25.57 billion, and HKD 27.62 billion respectively [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Antibiotics - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry with a market share of approximately 50% in both penicillin industrial salt and 6-APA [5]. - The antibiotic business is expected to maintain stability due to the overall industry outlook and the company's integrated supply chain advantages [5][7]. 2. Weight Loss: UBT251 - UBT251 has been licensed to Novo Nordisk, with an upfront payment of USD 200 million and potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.8 billion, along with tiered royalties based on net sales [2]. - Clinical trial results for UBT251 show a weight reduction of 15.1% from baseline after 12 weeks, surpassing the performance of similar products [2]. 3. Insulin - The company has successfully bid for all six procurement groups in the national insulin procurement process, with all products selected classified as A-level [3]. - The stable procurement policy is expected to support the growth of the insulin business [3]. 4. Animal Health - The company anticipates launching 19 animal health products starting in 2025, with over 10 products expected to be approved annually from 2026 to 2028 [4]. - The expansion into the pet market is expected to drive accelerated growth in the animal health segment [4]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is valued using a comparable company valuation method, with a target market capitalization of HKD 341.02 billion [6][7]. - The main business is assigned a PE ratio of 6x for 2025, while the innovative drug segment is assigned a PE ratio of 20x [7].