KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 长江证券·2025-05-20 07:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 26.850 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.64% year-on-year. The total revenue plus contract liabilities amounted to 50.639 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 20.91% [2][5][12]. - Direct sales continued to increase, with Q1 direct sales reaching 23.22 billion yuan, a growth of 20.19%. Wholesale revenue was 27.36 billion yuan, up 3.93%. The i-Moutai segment contributed 5.87 billion yuan in revenue, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.88%, returning to positive growth after a decline in the previous quarters [12]. - The company's profitability remained stable, with the net profit margin increasing by 0.42 percentage points to 52.19%. The gross margin decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 92.11%, while the expense ratio rose by 0.24 percentage points to 6.14% [12]. - The company is continuing its reform efforts, maintaining steady growth. Despite a slight decline in wholesale prices, the company retains strong control over pricing, indicating a solid long-term growth outlook. The company has a three-year dividend plan, which is expected to enhance its dividend yield value [12]. Financial Data Summary - As of May 12, 2025, the current stock price is 1,604.50 yuan, with a total share capital of 1.2562 billion shares. The net asset value per share is 205.67 yuan, and the highest and lowest prices in the past 12 months were 1,910 yuan and 1,246 yuan, respectively [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 75.90 yuan and 82.61 yuan, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21 and 19 times [12].