南华期货产业风险管理日报-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the log market will experience a pattern of weak supply and demand from June to July, with the market expected to fluctuate weakly. It also suggests paying attention to the spot feedback of subsequent supply reduction and the subsequent delivery game [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 750 - 820, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 17.24% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 76.9% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy Table - Inventory Management: For high - inventory levels worried about price drops, strategies include short - selling log futures (lg2507, sell, 25%, entry range 850 - 790) to lock in profits and offset production costs; buying put options (lg2507P800, buy, entry range 9.5 - 14) to prevent price drops and selling call options (lg2507C85, sell, 50%) to reduce capital costs [2]. - Procurement Management: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and aiming to lock in procurement costs, strategies include buying log futures (lg2507, buy, 50%, entry range 750 - 800); selling put options (lg2507P75, sell, 75%, entry range 5.5 - 12) to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [2]. Core Contradictions - Yesterday, the spot prices of various specifications at Shandong Rizhao Port decreased. The slope of the Contango structure has flattened compared to last week. In April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts was - 23.8%, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was 2.185 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%, with the decline rate expanding compared to the previous month and a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%. Due to the decline in foreign shipping profits in April and May, the contract signing volume decreased, and the reduction in arrival volume will be reflected in June. Port inventory is 3.41 million m³, with a week - on - week difference of - 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decline of 3.4%. The daily average port outbound volume is 61,400 m³, with a week - on - week difference of - 1,000 m³. The price difference between wood squares and logs in the Rizhao area has been expanding, and downstream profits have increased. Currently, the basis of almost all specifications of wood after conversion is positive, with no obvious short - hedging profits [3]. Bullish Interpretation - Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of the subsequent reduction in arrival volume [4]. - Macroeconomic policies are exerting force. Bearish Interpretation - Demand is weaker than expected, and sales are slow. - The subsequent shipping volume is expected to recover [7]. Log Data Overview - Supply: The radiation pine import volume in March 2025 was 1.71 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 450,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [9]. - Inventory: As of May 16, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%; Shandong port inventory was 1,899,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 31,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; Jiangsu port inventory was 1,118,568 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 24,968 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 30.8% [9]. - Demand: As of May 16, 2025, the national daily average port outbound volume of logs was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 15.0%; Shandong's daily average outbound volume was 32,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; Jiangsu's daily average outbound volume was 22,900 m³, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 28.7% [9]. - Profit: As of May 23, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 50 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/m³; the spruce import profit was - 116 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/m³ [9]. - Main Spot Prices: On May 19, 2025, the price of 3.9 medium (3.8A) logs at Rizhao Port was 750 yuan/m³, a day - on - day decrease of 10 yuan/m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%; the price of 4 medium (3.8A) logs at Taicang Port was 780 yuan/m³, with no day - on - day change and a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%; the price of 5.9 medium (5.8A) logs at Rizhao Port was 770 yuan/m³, a day - on - day decrease of 10 yuan/m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%; the price of 6 medium (5.8A) logs at Taicang Port was 790 yuan/m³, with no day - on - day change and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [9].