天顺风能（002531）：经营低点已现，Q2有望迎来修复拐点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for 2024, with total revenue of 4.86 billion yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 200 million yuan, down 74.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed a slight revenue decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, with a net loss of 90 million yuan, marking a 215.8% decline [4]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 930 million yuan, down 12.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 40 million yuan, down 76.0% year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company’s revenue breakdown by business segment showed a 49% decline in offshore wind output, leading to a revenue of 430 million yuan, down 72% [10]. - Onshore tower output decreased by 39%, resulting in revenue of 1.67 billion yuan, down 48% [10]. - Blade product revenue fell by 21% to 1.25 billion yuan, with a 19% decrease in blade output [10]. - The power generation segment saw a slight increase in revenue of 2%, totaling 1.27 billion yuan [10]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was approximately 19.5%, a decrease of 3 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company’s capital expenditures for 2024 and Q1 2025 were approximately 880 million yuan and 440 million yuan, respectively, indicating ongoing investment in offshore wind capacity [10]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that Q1 2025 represents the operational low point for the company, with expectations for recovery in Q2 as offshore wind operations ramp up [10]. - The company is also expanding its overseas operations, particularly with the establishment of a base in Germany, which is expected to benefit from increased European demand [10]. - The forecast for 2025 indicates a net profit of approximately 800 million yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of about 15 times [10].