Semir(SZ:002563) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-20 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the sentiment boost due to childbirth subsidy policies, which may enhance the performance of its retail brand, Balabala. The ongoing new retail reforms are anticipated to yield positive results, and continued store openings could provide additional revenue and performance flexibility. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.18 billion, 1.31 billion, and 1.45 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 11 times. Assuming an 80% dividend payout ratio, the estimated dividend yield for 2025 is approximately 5.9% [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 3.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, down 38% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses fell by 43% [5]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 increased by 0.4 percentage points to 47%, attributed to reduced discounts and an increase in direct sales. However, the expense ratio rose significantly by 5.9 percentage points, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios increasing by 4.1, 0.7, and 1.2 percentage points, respectively. Consequently, the net profit margin decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 7.0% [5][10]. - Inventory levels increased by 29.4% year-on-year to 3.35 billion yuan, with a turnover rate declining by 0.15 times to 0.48 times. The net cash flow from operating activities dropped by 82% year-on-year to 150 million yuan, primarily due to increased payments for goods [10][11].