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三生国健:重磅BD达成,707顺利授权辉瑞-20250521

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Views - The company has reached a significant licensing agreement with Pfizer for the 707 project, with potential upfront and milestone payments totaling up to 6.05billion,ofwhichthecompanywillreceive306.05 billion, of which the company will receive 30% [1][2]. - The 707 project shows promising clinical data and development progress, indicating strong potential for expanding indications and global commercialization [1][3]. - The company is expected to see a revenue surge due to licensing income, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][13]. Summary by Sections Licensing Agreement - The agreement with Pfizer includes an upfront payment of 1.25 billion and up to $4.8 billion in milestone payments, along with a double-digit percentage royalty on product sales [2][3]. Clinical Development - The 707 project has demonstrated excellent early clinical data, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 71% in first-line non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and 33% in third-line colorectal cancer (CRC) [3]. - The project is currently in various stages of clinical trials, including Phase III for PD-L1+ NSCLC and Phase II for other indications [3]. Autoimmune Pipeline - The company has four late-stage autoimmune pipeline products expected to reach the market by 2026, with significant milestones anticipated in 2024 and 2025 [4]. - Early-stage products are also progressing, with potential for overseas licensing [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to increase significantly, with estimates of RMB 4.08 billion in 2025, reflecting a 241.77% increase from previous estimates [7][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach RMB 2.94 billion in 2025, marking a substantial increase [7][13]. Valuation - The report assigns a target price of RMB 48.64, reflecting a valuation of RMB 30 billion based on comparable biotech companies [5][9].