碳酸锂日报-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract dropped 2.27% to 61,180 yuan/ton. Spot prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide all decreased. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 139 tons to 36,545 tons [3]. - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. plans to produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate from its 40,000 - ton project this year. In April 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 28,300 tons, a 56.3% month - on - month and 33.6% year - on - year increase. Lithium spodumene imports were 622,900 tons, a 16.5% month - on - month increase [3]. - The lithium ore market's quotation and transaction price centers moved down. Supply increased by 575 tons week - on - week to 16,630 tons, but the total supply in May is expected to be lower than expected. Demand for lithium carbonate from ternary and lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in May, and the cell segment remains prosperous. Inventory increased by 351 tons week - on - week to 131,920 tons, with downstream and other segments reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [3]. - The current market contradiction lies in supply. The continuous decline in lithium ore prices and low supply reduction have led to market pessimism, but short - term low valuations may cause capital disturbances and news may affect market sentiment. Attention should be paid to actual upstream production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Price Changes: The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract dropped 2.27% to 61,180 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 450 yuan/ton to 63,250 yuan/ton, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 450 yuan/ton to 61,600 yuan/ton, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 200 yuan/ton to 65,290 yuan/ton, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 200 yuan/ton to 70,435 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 139 tons to 36,545 tons [3]. - News: Salt Lake Co., Ltd. plans to produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate from its 40,000 - ton project this year. In April 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 28,300 tons (a 56.3% month - on - month and 33.6% year - on - year increase), with 20,300 tons from Chile (a 59.3% month - on - month and 18.1% year - on - year increase) and 6,850 tons from Argentina (a 47.4% month - on - month and 101.1% year - on - year increase). Lithium spodumene imports were 622,900 tons (a 16.5% month - on - month increase), including 297,700 tons from Australia (a 3.2% month - on - month decrease and 117.3% year - on - year increase), 40,300 tons from South Africa (a 22.0% month - on - month decrease), 106,000 tons from Zimbabwe (an 81.5% month - on - month increase), and 89,000 tons from Nigeria (a 4.6% month - on - month increase) [3]. - Market Situation: The lithium ore market's quotation and transaction price centers moved down. Supply increased by 575 tons week - on - week to 16,630 tons, but the total supply in May is expected to be lower than expected. Demand for lithium carbonate from ternary and lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in May, and the cell segment remains prosperous. Inventory increased by 351 tons week - on - week to 131,920 tons, with downstream and other segments reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [3]. - Market Outlook: The current market contradiction lies in supply. The continuous decline in lithium ore prices and low supply reduction have led to market pessimism, but short - term low valuations may cause capital disturbances and news may affect market sentiment. Attention should be paid to actual upstream production cuts [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Price Changes: Most products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain showed price declines on May 20, 2025, compared to the previous day. For example, the main contract closing price of futures dropped 320 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract closing price dropped 3,640 yuan/ton. Lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other product prices also decreased to varying degrees [5]. - Price Differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - Price Differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other price differences from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other segments from September 2024 to May 2025 [35][37]. - Production Costs: Charts present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].