Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [7][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.71 billion yuan and a net profit of 180 million yuan for 2024, showing a year-on-year revenue decline of 1.8% but a net profit increase of 8.0%. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 360 million yuan, with a significant decline in net profit by 75.0% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic aseptic packaging market, with a notable market share of approximately 10.5% in the Chinese aseptic packaging sales volume and 13.4% in the liquid milk market [7][8]. - The gross margin improved to 23.8% in 2024, up by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin also increased to 10.8% [7][8]. - The company anticipates synergies from the acquisition of Fenmei Packaging, which is expected to enhance its production capacity, research and development, and customer base [7][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1,706 million yuan, with projected growth rates of 3.4%, 6.3%, and 7.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][8]. - The net profit for 2024 was 184 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 14.9%, 7.1%, and 7.5% for the following years [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.44 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22 [3][8]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 11.7 yuan, compared to the current price of 9.69 yuan [3][8].
新巨丰（301296）：2024年报及2025年一季报点评：大客户一季度收入转正，期待并购协同效应释放