JXAC(SH:600495) Shanxi Securities·2025-05-21 06:58Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add-A" rating to the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in its railway equipment business, achieving a revenue of 1.314 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.40%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.08 million yuan, up 13.39% year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 373 million yuan, representing a significant year-on-year growth of 52.67%, and a net profit of 7.82 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses [4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic railway axle manufacturing sector, maintaining a high market share in key segments such as national railway freight axles and urban rail transit axles [5][6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 6.16 billion yuan from railway vehicles in 2024, a 33.23% increase year-on-year, while axle revenue was 4.27 billion yuan, down 6.73% year-on-year [5]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 12.88% in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.47% [8]. - The net asset return rate for 2024 was 0.71%, up 0.08 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company benefits from the acceleration of domestic high-speed rail axle localization, with high-end products expected to see increased demand [6]. - The company is focusing on multi-industry collaborative development, with significant progress in new industries such as defense equipment and smart firefighting [6]. - The actual controller of the company, China Ordnance Industry Group, and its major shareholder, Jinxi Group, are expected to enhance the company's development confidence through planned share purchases [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a compound annual growth rate in net profit of 10.5% to 16.1% from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 26 million yuan in 2025, 29 million yuan in 2026, and 33 million yuan in 2027 [9][11]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the railway equipment sector, driven by historical highs in railway passenger and freight transport and increased fixed asset investment [9].