Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.71 billion yuan and a net profit of 180 million yuan for 2024, showing a year-on-year revenue decline of 1.8% but a net profit increase of 8.0%. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 360 million yuan, with a significant decline in net profit by 75.0% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is a leader in the domestic aseptic packaging market, with a market share of approximately 10.5% in the Chinese aseptic packaging sales volume and 13.4% in the liquid milk market. The core customer, Yili, experienced a revenue decline of 8.2% in 2024 [1][7]. - The gross margin improved to 23.8% in 2024, up by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin also increased to 10.8% [1][7]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1,706 million yuan, with a projected growth of 3.4% in 2025, reaching 1,764 million yuan. The net profit is expected to grow by 14.9% in 2025, reaching 211 million yuan [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.44 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22. The target price is set at 11.7 yuan, compared to the current price of 9.69 yuan [3][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 3.58 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.20 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a steady growth trajectory [8].
新巨丰（301296）2024年报及2025年一季报点评：大客户一季度收入转正，期待并购协同效应释放