Group 1: Macro Analysis - The report analyzes the risk of a sell-off in US Treasury bonds, indicating that the scale of US Treasury holdings and daily trading volume is significantly larger than that of any other country, suggesting that no single nation can manipulate the US Treasury market [2] - Historical data shows that reductions in overseas holdings have less impact on US Treasury trends compared to fundamental variables, but a coordinated sell-off by multiple countries in response to tariffs could significantly disrupt the US Treasury market and global financial markets [2] Group 2: Fixed Income - In April, the broad fiscal revenue showed a slight positive change with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while fiscal expenditure grew by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in spending [2] - Cumulatively, from January to April, broad fiscal revenue decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 7.2% [2] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - Investment recommendations for the liquor sector emphasize strengthening core capabilities and highlight three main lines: leading brands with increasing market share, high-certainty regional brands, and resilient recovery stocks [3] - For consumer products, the report suggests focusing on opportunities in beer and beverages, with a particular emphasis on companies benefiting from policy changes or recovery improvements, as well as those with high growth potential [3] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report discusses the collaboration between Sanofi and Pfizer regarding the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, which includes a non-refundable upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments up to $4.8 billion [6] - Sanofi retains rights for development and commercialization in mainland China, while Pfizer will have an option for commercialization in that region based on agreed financial terms [6]
朝闻国盛：三大维度看，美债抛售风险有多大？