Vipshop(US:VIPS) HTSC·2025-05-22 01:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $19.01 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 was 26.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 5.0%, which is in line with the consensus estimate of -4.5%. The decline is attributed to a high base from the previous year and ongoing recovery in consumer sentiment [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was 2.3 billion RMB, corresponding to a non-GAAP net profit margin of 8.8%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, but better than the consensus estimate of 8.5%. This is attributed to disciplined marketing expense management [1]. - The company expects revenue growth to gradually recover to positive year-on-year growth in the second half of 2025 [1]. Revenue and User Metrics - The total GMV for Q1 2025 was 52.4 billion RMB, flat year-on-year. Product revenue was 24.3 billion RMB, accounting for 92.5% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 6.0% [2]. - Active customers numbered 41.3 million, down 4.2% year-on-year. However, the number of Super VIP (SVIP) members continued to grow at a double-digit rate year-on-year, contributing 51% of the online net GMV in Q1 2025 [2]. Management Guidance - The management indicated that revenue growth may turn positive year-on-year in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, with profit margins expected to remain relatively stable throughout the year [3]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.2%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, aligning with consensus expectations [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain shareholder returns totaling no less than 75% of the non-GAAP net profit for 2024, estimated at approximately 6.7 billion RMB. As of May 20, 2025, the company had completed $250 million in annual dividends and $150 million in stock buybacks, equivalent to about 2.9 billion RMB [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 1.4%, 1.3%, and 1.5% to 8.9 billion RMB, 9.3 billion RMB, and 9.6 billion RMB, respectively, due to slower-than-expected revenue growth recovery [5][25]. - The target PE for 2025 is set at 8x, which is at a discount compared to the average of comparable companies at 14.1x, primarily due to the company's lower revenue growth expectations [5][28].