Take-Two Interactive Software(US:TTWO) HTSC·2025-05-22 01:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $259.30 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $1.58 billion for Q4 FY25, which is a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, outperforming the consensus estimate of 12.1% [1]. - The GAAP net loss was $3.7 billion, which was worse than the consensus estimate of a $0.2 billion loss, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $3.6 billion [1]. - The company expects limited future impairments as the total goodwill value decreased from $4.43 billion at the end of FY24 to $1.06 billion at the end of FY25 [1]. - The release of the second trailer for GTA VI on May 6 received over 475 million views within 24 hours, indicating strong player anticipation despite the game's delay to May 26, 2026 [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s net bookings for Q4 FY25 were $1.58 billion, aligning with the previous guidance of $1.52 to $1.62 billion [2]. - The management indicated that growth was primarily driven by the strong performance of NBA 2K, with consumer spending increasing by 42% year-on-year [2]. - For FY26, the company guides net bookings of $5.9 to $6.0 billion and total revenue of $5.95 to $6.05 billion, with a GAAP net loss projected between $0.44 to $0.50 billion [2]. Product Pipeline - The core product GTA VI is now expected to launch on May 26, 2026, which is clearer than the previously vague timeline of Fall 2025, reducing the likelihood of further delays [3]. - The company plans to release major titles such as Mafia and Borderlands 4 in August FY26, with a total of 21 core games, 9 mobile games, and 8 sequels expected between FY26 and FY28 [4]. Adjusted Profit and Valuation - The profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been adjusted to net losses of $0.45 billion and a profit of $0.73 billion, respectively, with FY28 projected at $1.01 billion [5][13]. - The revenue forecast for FY26 has been reduced to $6.01 billion, while FY27 revenue is expected to be $9.45 billion, reflecting a 14.2% increase from previous estimates [5][13]. - The valuation window has been adjusted to FY27, with a target price-to-sales ratio of 4.9x, leading to a new target price of $259.30, up from $213.60 [5][16].