顺丰深港双平台，优质仓储物流REITs的配置窗口期

Group 1: Market Overview - The logistics industry in China has shown significant improvement, with the logistics industry prosperity index at 51.1% in April 2025, indicating expansion[1] - The average effective rent in major city clusters has declined, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region down 3.7%, Yangtze River Delta down 6.1%, and the Pearl River Delta down 0.3%[2] - As of May 16, 2025, there are 9 listed logistics REITs in China, with 31 underlying assets, facing pressure on rental rates and occupancy[2] Group 2: REIT Performance - SF Hong Kong REIT, initiated by SF Holding, has been stable since its listing in May 2021, with a valuation drop to HKD 6.7 billion in 2024, down 8.9%[3] - The Southern SF Logistics REIT, listed in April 2025, focuses on high-quality assets in the South China and Southeast Asia regions, with a market value of CNY 3.766 billion and an expected cash distribution rate of 3.98% in 2025[4] - The Southern SF Logistics REIT's rental rates are currently above market averages, but there is a risk of downward adjustment upon lease renewals[4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The high-standard warehouse sector in China is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" market structure, with Prologis leading in market share[2] - The logistics REITs are adopting a "price for volume" strategy to maintain occupancy amid supply shocks, leading to rental declines and rising vacancy rates[2] - The average vacancy rates in major city clusters are high, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region at 28.6% and the Yangtze River Delta at 25.4%[2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The logistics sector is expected to face continued pressure from rental declines and increased vacancy rates due to ongoing supply releases[2] - The Southern SF Logistics REIT is positioned to benefit from the current high rental period before potential adjustments in 2027[4] - Risks include unexpected policy changes regarding public REITs and operational risks associated with infrastructure projects[5]