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电力设备:Wolfseed可能破产助力缓解国内SiC价格竞争压力
First Capital Securities·2025-05-22 06:43

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance against the benchmark index [29]. Core Insights - Wolfspeed, a leading global supplier of SiC substrates, is reportedly preparing to file for bankruptcy, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price by over 50% [3][4]. - In contrast, Tianyue Advanced, a domestic SiC substrate company, is projected to achieve approximately 240millioninrevenuefor2024,representinga41240 million in revenue for 2024, representing a 41% year-on-year growth, and has turned a profit for the first time through its main business [8][9]. - The report highlights that domestic companies have gained a significant cost advantage over Wolfspeed, with Tianyue Advanced's gross margin improving from -5.8% to 24% from 2022 to 2025, while Wolfspeed's gross margin has declined from 34.1% to -17.1% during the same period [9][18]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Wolfspeed's Financial Struggles - Wolfspeed's revenue for the first three quarters of fiscal 2025 was 560 million, down approximately 8% year-on-year, with a net loss of about 950million,markinga37.7950 million, marking a 37.7% increase in losses compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The company's total assets were reported at 7.57 billion, with a net asset value of only 210million,indicatingacumulativelossofapproximately210 million, indicating a cumulative loss of approximately 3.87 billion [5][6]. Section 2: Domestic Competitors' Performance - Tianyue Advanced's revenue for 2024 is expected to be around 240million,withanetprofitof179millionRMB,markingasignificantimprovementinprofitability[8].Thereportemphasizesthatdomesticcompanieshavemadesubstantialadvancementsintechnology,withseveralfirmsshowcasing12inchSiCsubstratesin2024,indicatingthattheyhavecaughtupwithinternationalcompetitors[14][17].Section3:MarketDynamicsandPriceCompetitionTheglobalsalesscaleoftheNtype/conductiveSiCsubstrateindustryisprojectedtobe240 million, with a net profit of 179 million RMB, marking a significant improvement in profitability [8]. - The report emphasizes that domestic companies have made substantial advancements in technology, with several firms showcasing 12-inch SiC substrates in 2024, indicating that they have caught up with international competitors [14][17]. Section 3: Market Dynamics and Price Competition - The global sales scale of the N-type/conductive SiC substrate industry is projected to be 1.04 billion in 2024, a decrease of about 9% year-on-year, with Wolfspeed holding a market share of approximately 33.7% [18][19]. - If Wolfspeed files for bankruptcy, it is expected to alleviate the current price competition in the SiC substrate market, benefiting domestic manufacturers significantly [18]. Section 4: Long-term Demand Outlook - The report forecasts a sustained long-term growth in demand for SiC chips, primarily driven by the electric vehicle sector, which accounts for about 70% of the downstream market, and the renewable energy sector, which exceeds 10% [23][25].