唯品会（VIPS.US）：短期保持谨慎

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of $14 [3][12]. Core Views - The company's 1Q25 revenue decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while adjusted net profit was RMB 2.3 billion, maintaining a high profit margin of 8.8%. Active user numbers fell by 4% year-on-year, but SVIP users grew by 18%, contributing 51% of online GMV. Total order volume declined by 6%, with GMV remaining stable, and the apparel category showed positive growth [2][3]. - For 2Q25, the company provides cautious guidance, expecting revenue to decline by 5% to 0%. However, there are signs of improved consumer confidence, with sales momentum picking up in April and May. The company remains cautious about the 618 sales due to ongoing promotional activities and consumer sensitivity to subsidies. The company anticipates double-digit growth in SVIP numbers for the year, which is expected to help return to growth in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The company has returned over $400 million to shareholders year-to-date and commits to returning no less than 75% of 2024 profits to shareholders, corresponding to an attractive return rate of approximately 12.7% [2]. Financial Summary - The report forecasts FY25E revenue at RMB 107.048 billion and FY26E revenue at RMB 111.685 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.1x and 5.8x [3][5]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 8.806 billion for FY25E and RMB 9.285 billion for FY26E, with a stable profit margin expected throughout the year [5][11]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately $7.374 billion, with a recent average trading volume of $62.4 million over the past three months [5][12].