Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-05-22 12:26Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After this round of price increases, the valuation of styrene has been restored, and the styrene - pure benzene spread has widened to a new high for the year. Driven by profits, some maintenance - scheduled plants ended maintenance ahead of schedule recently, increasing supply and alleviating the near - term spot shortage. As a result, both the styrene - pure benzene spread and the absolute price of styrene have started to decline. Subsequently, styrene is gradually entering the off - season for demand, and its price is expected to move downward [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 7200 - 7800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.94% and a historical percentile of 86.2% (3 - year) [2] - For inventory management when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops: 1) Short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7400 - 7500 to prevent inventory depreciation. 2) Sell call options (EB2507C7600) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 80 - 140 to collect premiums and reduce capital costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders: 1) Buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7200 - 7300 to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs. 2) Sell put options (EB2507P7000) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 60 - 100 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] 2. Core Contradiction - After the price increase, styrene's valuation was repaired, and the spread with pure benzene widened. Profit - driven early - ended maintenance increased supply, easing the spot shortage and causing price drops. Entering the off - season, the price is expected to fall [3] 3.利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - As of May 19, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 5.21 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons (- 8.11%) from the previous period, approaching the 5 - ton mark [4] - Recently, styrene plants of Hengli and Zhejiang Petrochemical have shut down successively, tightening the near - term spot liquidity [4] 4.利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - In April, China's pure benzene imports were 44.81 tons, a 16.12% month - on - month decrease but a 69.57% year - on - year increase, still at a high level. From late May, previously - traded European pure benzene will arrive in Asia, and there are new orders, so future imports are expected to remain high [7] - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, and many downstream plants plan maintenance in May - June, leading to a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [7] - The 45 - ton styrene plant of Shenghong and the 72 - ton styrene plant of Lihuayi plan to restart soon, alleviating the current spot shortage of styrene [7] - The current tariff cut has not brought a large number of new export orders to the terminal market, and styrene is gradually entering the off - season [7] 5. Styrene Basis and Price Changes - The basis of East China - EB05, EB06, EB07, and EB08 all increased on May 22, 2025, compared with May 21, 2025 [8] - The prices of styrene futures contracts (EB2505, EB2506, EB2507, EB2508) and spot prices in different regions (East China, South China, North China, Shandong) all decreased on May 22, 2025, compared with May 21, 2025 [8][9] - The EB non - integrated profit increased by 15.85 yuan/ton, while the EB integrated profit decreased [9] - The profits of some downstream products such as phenol and aniline increased, while the profits of HIPS and GPPS decreased [9]