TOPSPORTS(HK:06110) Guoxin Securities·2025-05-23 04:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][8]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and net profit declined as expected, with a 6.6% year-on-year decrease in revenue to 27.01 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, influenced by weak consumer demand and reduced foot traffic [1]. - The retail channel revenue fell by 6.8% to 23.03 billion yuan, while wholesale channel revenue decreased by 5.8% to 3.79 billion yuan [1]. - The main brands, Nike and Adidas, saw a revenue drop of 6.1% to 23.31 billion yuan, and other brands experienced a 9.9% decline to 3.50 billion yuan [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 41.9% to 1.29 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 3.4 percentage points to 38.4% due to increased promotional discounts and a higher proportion of low-margin online sales [1][2]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 135%, reflecting strong cash flow generation capabilities [2]. Revenue and Profit Trends - The company reported a 20% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow to 3.76 billion yuan, with a free cash flow to net profit ratio of 2.6 times, indicating efficient cash generation [2]. - The revenue decline narrowed in the second half of the fiscal year, with a 7.9% drop in the first half and a 5.4% drop in the second half, while profit declines were more pronounced [2]. - The total sales area decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, but the sales area per store increased by 7.2%, indicating improved store efficiency [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is optimizing its store structure and enhancing membership operations, with a total user base of 86 million, where member contributions account for 93.2% of sales [3]. - The company is strategically entering the outdoor and professional sports segments, partnering with high-end brands like Norda and Norrona for exclusive operations in China [3]. - The management expressed cautious optimism for the new fiscal year, focusing on efficiency and profitability improvement, with a target of maintaining net profit levels year-on-year [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company expects net profits for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 to be 1.30 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous forecasts [5][59]. - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 3.80 to 4.00 HKD, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17 to 18 times for fiscal year 2026 [5][59].