Yanghe(SZ:002304) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-23 07:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with a focus on long-term growth strategies. The sales of mid-to-high-end liquor are under pressure, and both domestic and external markets are in a period of adjustment [2][4] - The company has significantly increased its national advertising expenses, which has led to a temporary strain on cash flow. The gross and net profit margins have decreased year-on-year [3] - Despite the current challenges, the company is expected to benefit from policy catalysts that may restore liquor demand, and it has a high dividend yield, indicating potential for recovery [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 288.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%, with a net profit of 66.73 billion yuan, down 33.37% [10] - For 2025, the revenue growth is projected to decline by 13.23%, with a net profit decrease of 14.63% [12] Product and Market Performance - The company's mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues for 2024 were 243.17 billion yuan and 39.31 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 14.79% and 0.49% [2] - The sales volume of liquor decreased by 16.30%, while the average price per ton increased by 3.93% [2] Cost and Expenses - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 2.09 percentage points to 73.16%, and the net profit margin fell by 7.16 percentage points to 23.09% [3] - The company increased its advertising and promotional expenses significantly, with national advertising costs rising by 96.10% to 800 million yuan [3] Cash Flow and Dividends - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 46.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.49% year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 25.36 billion yuan, down 47.72% [3] - The total dividend for 2024 was 7 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 104.9% and a dividend yield of 6.8% [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast, expecting revenue growth rates of -13.23%, 2.65%, and 3.27% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 3.78, 3.94, and 4.11 yuan per share, respectively [4]