Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The revenue effects from AI and cloud businesses are significant, with leading companies maintaining an optimistic outlook on capital expenditures [1][4]. - Alibaba's FY25Q4 revenue reached 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with adjusted EBITDA and net profit of 41.8 billion yuan and 29.8 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - Tencent's Q1 FY25 revenue was 180 billion yuan, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth, with a Non-IFRS net profit of 61.3 billion yuan, up 22% [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Alibaba's Taobao Group revenue was 101.4 billion yuan, up 9% year-on-year, while its international digital commerce group revenue was 33.6 billion yuan, a 22% increase [4]. - Alibaba's cloud intelligence group reported revenue of 30.1 billion yuan, growing 18% year-on-year, with cloud business revenue for the quarter also at 30.1 billion yuan, marking an 18% increase [4]. - Tencent's online gaming revenue was 59.5 billion yuan, up 24%, and its enterprise service revenue reached 55 billion yuan, a 5% increase, driven by growth in cloud services and merchant technology service fees [4]. Capital Expenditure Outlook - Alibaba's FY25Q4 capital expenditure was 24.6 billion yuan, a 121% increase year-on-year, with a total capital expenditure of 86 billion yuan for FY25, significantly up from 32.1 billion yuan in FY24 [4]. - Tencent's Q1 FY25 capital expenditure was 27.5 billion yuan, a 91% increase, primarily focused on AI hardware investments [4]. AI and Data Center Development - The rapid development of large models and the ongoing construction of large data centers are anticipated, with Alibaba open-sourcing over 200 models and achieving over 300 million downloads [4]. - Tencent's upgraded large model knowledge engine aims to assist enterprises in activating private domain knowledge, with its model ranking among the top eight globally [4]. - ABI Research estimates that the number of large-scale data centers will increase from 511 in 2024 to 770 by 2030, with significant investments from cloud service providers [4]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the continued growth in capital expenditures in the computing power sector will drive demand for network communication equipment, with potential investment targets including ZTE Corporation, Feiling Technology, and Unisplendour [4].
AI与云业务增收效应显著,头部企业延续资本开支乐观展望
Dongguan Securities·2025-05-23 09:41