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三生制药(01530):合作Pfizer点评:天价deal刷记录,临床开发再加速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, which is the largest for a Chinese innovative drug license-out, along with potential milestone payments of $4.8 billion and double-digit royalties on net sales [4][6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 12% to 14% from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 102.01 billion, 114.94 billion, and 131.53 billion yuan respectively [6] - The company is anticipated to see a significant acceleration in domestic revenue due to multiple late-stage clinical assets, including IL17 monoclonal antibody expected to commercialize in 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Projected operating revenue (in million yuan): 7,836 (2023A), 9,108 (2024A), 10,201 (2025E), 11,494 (2026E), 13,153 (2027E) with growth rates of 14%, 16%, 12%, 13%, and 14% respectively [2] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan): 1,549 (2023A), 2,090 (2024A), 2,345 (2025E), 2,648 (2026E), 3,027 (2027E) with growth rates of -19%, 35%, 12%, 13%, and 14% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (in yuan): 0.65 (2023A), 0.87 (2024A), 0.98 (2025E), 1.10 (2026E), 1.26 (2027E) [2] Market Position and Development - The PD1×VEGF dual antibody market is validated, with significant clinical results from competitors enhancing the outlook for SSGJ707 [6] - The company’s collaboration with Pfizer is expected to accelerate clinical development in the U.S. due to Pfizer's robust clinical and commercialization capabilities [6] Valuation Metrics - Projected P/E ratios: 28.5 (2023A), 21.2 (2024A), 18.9 (2025E), 16.7 (2026E), 14.6 (2027E) [2] - Projected P/B ratios: 3.2 (2023A), 2.9 (2024A), 2.4 (2025E), 2.0 (2026E), 1.7 (2027E) [2]