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华大九天(301269):2024年报、2025一季报点评:收购拓局加码研发,EDA龙头加速突围

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price raised to RMB 147.19 [1][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to solidify its leading position in the domestic EDA market, planning a full acquisition of Chip and Semiconductor to enhance its EDA product matrix. The change in control to China Electronics Group is anticipated to provide substantial industry resources, supporting long-term growth [1][12][14]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 15.98 billion, RMB 21.37 billion, and RMB 27.55 billion, respectively, with EPS estimates of RMB 0.43, RMB 0.57, and RMB 0.72 [11][12]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.22 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.98%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 109 million, down 45.46% due to increased share-based payment expenses and higher personnel costs [12][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue: - 2023A: RMB 1,010 million - 2024A: RMB 1,222 million (26.6% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 1,598 million (30.8% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 2,137 million (33.7% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 2,755 million (28.9% YoY) [3][8] - Net Profit (Attributable to Shareholders): - 2023A: RMB 201 million - 2024A: RMB 109 million (-45.5% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 232 million (111.7% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 308 million (33.1% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 391 million (26.7% YoY) [3][8] - EPS: - 2023A: RMB 0.37 - 2024A: RMB 0.20 - 2025E: RMB 0.43 - 2026E: RMB 0.57 - 2027E: RMB 0.72 [3][8] - R&D Investment: - 2024 R&D investment grew by 26.77%, accounting for 71.02% of revenue [12][14]. Market Position - The company maintains a top market share among local EDA firms, with nearly 700 global clients and a strong demonstration effect in the industry. It has achieved coverage of the full analog circuit design process and supports advanced nodes like 5nm, 14nm, and 28nm [12][14].