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全球ADC/XDC一体化服务龙头,商业化蓄势待发 ——药明合联首次覆盖报告

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in ADC and XDC CRDMO, benefiting from strong growth in the ADC sector and unique competitive advantages as an industry leader [5][20] - The ADC market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of $64.7 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in treatment strategies and new drug approvals [9][43] - The company is developing a comprehensive one-stop service platform that covers the entire process from discovery to GMP production, which is expected to accelerate project timelines and enhance growth potential [9][20] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown rapid growth, with a CAGR of 180% and 121% from 2020 to 2023, respectively [20] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 5,470.58 million, HKD 7,169.95 million, and HKD 9,202.70 million, with corresponding net profits of HKD 1,257.14 million, HKD 1,695.86 million, and HKD 2,302.43 million [8][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 26.35% in 2023 to 34.00% by 2027, while net margin is projected to rise from 13.35% to 25.02% over the same period [8] Market Position - The company holds a 9.8% global market share in the ADC sector, ranking second globally and first domestically, with a significant increase in overseas revenue contribution [68] - The ADC outsourcing service market is projected to grow from $1.5 billion in 2022 to over $11 billion by 2030, indicating a strong demand for the company's services [64][68]