LEAPMOTOR(09863) 国盛证券·2025-05-25 09:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (09863.HK) with a target price of HKD 73, corresponding to a valuation of HKD 977 billion, which is 1.5x the estimated price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for 2025 [4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's Q1 2025 gross margin exceeded expectations, achieving 14.9%, a significant improvement from -1.4% year-on-year, driven by increased sales volume and cost control measures [1][4]. - The company reported a Q1 revenue of CNY 10.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 187.1%, with vehicle sales rising 162% to 87,552 units [1][4]. - The outlook for Q2 2025 anticipates sales of 130,000 to 140,000 units, with a gross margin expected to decline slightly [1][4]. Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, Leap Motor's sales reached 87,552 units, with the C series accounting for 77.5% of total sales, reflecting a 5.7 percentage point increase [2]. - The launch of new models, including the B10 and upgraded C series vehicles, is expected to drive continued sales growth [2][3]. International Expansion - Leap Motor exported 13,632 units from January to April 2025, leading among new energy vehicle manufacturers in China [3]. - The company has established over 500 sales and service points internationally, with plans for localized production in Malaysia and Europe by 2026 [3]. Component Business Outlook - Leap Motor's collaboration with major automotive players, including a strategic partnership with FAW and Stellantis, is expected to enhance its component business and improve economies of scale [4]. - The company anticipates significant growth in sales volume, projecting 550,000 units in 2025, with revenues reaching CNY 60 billion [4][5]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Leap Motor's revenue to grow from CNY 16.75 billion in 2023 to CNY 99.81 billion by 2027, with a projected net profit of CNY 6.62 billion in 2027 [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 0.5% in 2023 to 14% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [12][13].