XIAOMI(HK:01810) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-25 11:45Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: May 25, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "Microstructure Crowding High, Convertible Bonds Guard Against Phased Adjustment" [1] - Analysts: Chen Xi, Liu Wei [2] Group 2: Market Review Asset Performance - Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All-A Index declined by 0.57% and 0.63% respectively, with the daily average trading volume of the whole market reaching 1.17 trillion yuan. The April industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations. However, high micro-cap stock crowding and the rapid rise of US Treasury bonds led to a market correction [2]. - S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 2.61% and 2.47% respectively, related to the rapid rise of US Treasury bonds [2]. - London gold price rose by 4.86%, related to Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the rise of US Treasury bonds [2]. Convertible Bond Market - CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.11%. As of May 23, the median convertible bond price, conversion premium rate, and pure bond premium rate were 120 yuan, 30.21%, and 14.18% respectively [2]. - In terms of industries, Medicine & Biology, Nonferrous Metals, and Automobiles performed well. The good performance of medicine may be related to SSGJ - 707, and nonferrous metals were mainly related to the sharp rise of gold. The market continued to rotate rapidly, lacking a leading sector [2]. Convertible Bond Terms - Bojun, Borui, Rundong, and Hao 24 decided not to redeem, while Hongchang, Hangyin, Falang, and Outong are expected to meet the redemption conditions. Jingke, Xiangjia, Fangyuan, Wentai, Leizhi, Meijin, Wenke, and Jianyou will not adjust the conversion price downward [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics Economic Data - On May 19, the National Bureau of Statistics released April economic data. The industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year. From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.0% year - on - year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 5.8%, manufacturing investment by 8.8%, and real estate development investment decreasing by 10.3%. The April economic data was generally in line with expectations but slightly weakened month - on - month, mainly related to the weak production of export enterprises in April. Infrastructure remained the main driving force of the economy [4]. Corporate Events - On May 22, at the 15th - anniversary strategic new product launch of Xiaomi, the Xiaomi 15S Pro and Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra will be the first to be equipped with the SoC chip Xuanjie O1, and the Xiaomi YU7 made its debut. The 3nm Xuanjie O1 is manufactured by TSMC, and the YU7 is the first SUV, but the price is expected to be announced in July [4]. International Events - On May 16, Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to the increase in the US government's debt and interest payment ratio. On May 19, the yield of 30 - year US Treasury bonds exceeded 5% during intraday trading. The rapid rise of US Treasury bonds may tighten global liquidity and increase market risk aversion [4]. Market Index Events - On May 21, the Beixin 50 and micro - cap stock index hit record highs, possibly related to market speculation on small - cap companies. However, the current micro - cap stock crowding is obvious. The trading volume ratio of CSI 2000 to SSE 50 has reached a historical high, second only to November 2023 and December 2024. Attention should be paid to the possible adjustment caused by the retreat of micro - cap stocks [5]. Upcoming Events - Next week, pay attention to the May PMI data and the Huawei Zunjie S800 press conference [5]. Group 4: Convertible Bond Views Market Situation Analysis - This week's key market events include the record highs of the Beixin 50 and micro - cap stock index and the sharp rise of US Treasury bonds. The recent rapid rotation of market styles and the significant increase in the micro - cap stock index have led to overly obvious small - cap crowding and poor microstructure. After hitting record highs on May 21, there was a significant correction on May 22. Coupled with the tightening of global liquidity caused by the rapid rise of overseas US Treasury bonds, it is further negative for micro - cap stocks sensitive to liquidity [6]. - The market has fully priced in the "reciprocal tariffs" and "tariff easing" since April and the expectations for domestic policies under the tariff background. Before the Sino - US joint statement, the market had basically returned to the level before the "reciprocal tariffs" in terms of total volume, and the sectors that were significantly affected by tariffs had also rebounded significantly [6]. Outlook - Looking ahead, the phased new logic may be "deterioration of microstructure and tightening of liquidity", which may lead to phased market self - adjustment and correction. On one hand, the microstructure has deteriorated significantly due to the continuous rapid rotation of styles and the speculation on small - cap stocks. On the other hand, historical experience shows that the rapid rise of US Treasury bonds may trigger an adjustment in micro - cap stocks. The current rise of US Treasury bonds caused by Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating may also lead to liquidity tightening and trigger an adjustment in micro - cap stocks [7]. Recommended Targets - Stable targets include Shangyin, Changyin, Hua'an, Lantian, Wenshi and other convertible bonds; elastic targets include Zhongchong Zhuan 2, Daotong, Yinlun, Jizhi, Limin, Qianglian, Anji, Dinglong and other convertible bonds [7]