Core Insights - The report analyzes the impact of the US-China trade friction on asset prices during the periods of easing from 2018 to 2019, highlighting the complexity and long-term nature of the trade disputes [1][8] - It identifies three key patterns in asset price movements: long-term trends are primarily driven by fundamentals, market sensitivity to negative trade signals is higher than to easing signals, and different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to trade events [1][36] Summary by Sections Trade Easing Periods - The US-China trade friction experienced four notable easing periods, including the joint statement in May 2018, the G20 summit meeting in December 2018, the Osaka G20 summit in June 2019, and the Washington talks in October 2019 [8][19] - Each easing period had different durations, with the shortest lasting 10 days and the longest over 4 months, often interrupted by unilateral actions from the US [8][19] Asset Performance During Easing Periods - In the first easing period (May 2018), US stocks showed volatility while Chinese stocks faced downward pressure due to tariffs and financial deleveraging, with the Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index experiencing maximum declines of -22.1% and -22.3% respectively [11][19] - The second easing period (December 2018) saw a significant rebound in US stocks, with the S&P 500 gaining a maximum of 25.9%, while Chinese stocks only briefly recovered before declining again [19][20] - The third easing period (June 2019) resulted in a mixed response, with initial gains in Chinese stocks followed by declines as trade tensions resumed [25][31] - The fourth easing period (October 2019) led to a clear upward trend in both US and Chinese stocks, although the performance diverged later, with the S&P 500 rising 7.8% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell [31][34] Market Sensitivity to Trade Signals - The report emphasizes that asset prices are more sensitive to negative trade signals than to easing signals, with significant declines following negative news compared to muted responses to positive developments [36][37] - For instance, the Hang Seng Index showed a T+30 average decline of -8.5% following negative trade news, while the response to easing signals was much less pronounced [37][42] Differences in Asset Sensitivity - The sensitivity of different asset classes to trade events varies, with equities and currencies reacting more strongly than the bond market, which remains influenced by domestic policies and fundamentals [36][40] - The report notes that gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset increased during trade tensions, diverging from the performance of other commodities [40][42]
以2018-19年为例：贸易摩擦缓和期资产价格如何走