KELUN PHARMA(002422) 东方证券·2025-05-25 15:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 42.24 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 24 times the earnings per share for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is entering a harvest period for innovative drugs, although its main business faces short-term pressure due to the impact of centralized procurement on the infusion and generic drug segments [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 21.81 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.94 billion CNY, up 19.53% [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline to 4.39 billion CNY, down 29.42%, and a net profit of 584 million CNY, down 43.07%, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year [9]. - The ADC platform is expected to yield significant commercial results, with key products like SKB264 receiving regulatory approval for multiple indications [9]. - The antibiotic supply-demand structure remains stable, with synthetic biology products contributing to revenue growth [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials indicate a revenue increase from 21.45 billion CNY in 2023 to 29.19 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 2.46 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.62 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.76 CNY in 2025, with a gradual increase to 2.27 CNY by 2027 [4][2]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 50% to 52.7% over the forecast period, indicating a solid profitability outlook [4].