无人物流车：降本拓权，增长元年

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [8] Core Insights - The domestic low-speed unmanned logistics vehicle market is entering a year of explosive growth, with leading logistics technology companies expected to see a multiple increase in order volume by 2025 [1][4] - Key factors driving the commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles include significant cost reductions in core components and improved algorithm efficiency, making unmanned vehicles economically advantageous compared to human labor [4][24] - The loosening of road rights policies is accelerating the commercialization of unmanned vehicles, expanding their application from closed environments to open urban distribution scenarios [4][36] - The total sales volume of replaceable commercial vehicles is estimated at 2.85 million units, with a potential stock of 12 million units, indicating a substantial market opportunity [4][43] - By 2025, the total delivery volume of leading unmanned logistics vehicle companies may reach tens of thousands, with a market size potentially exceeding 100 billion yuan if the penetration rate in the last-mile delivery market exceeds 17% [4][47] Summary by Sections Cost Advantages and Policy Changes - The cost of unmanned logistics vehicles has significantly decreased, with the price of a single vehicle dropping from approximately 200,000 yuan in 2019 to 50,000 yuan in 2024, while monthly operational costs are around 3,167 yuan, significantly lower than the average monthly income of human drivers [24][25] - Road rights policies have been progressively relaxed, allowing unmanned vehicles to operate on public roads, with over 100 cities granting operational rights as of May 2025 [31][35] Application Areas - L4 level autonomous driving technology is being applied in various sectors, including urban distribution, traditional logistics, community group buying, and retail, showcasing its versatility and potential for efficiency improvements [36][41] Market Potential - The potential market for unmanned logistics vehicles is substantial, with estimates suggesting that if penetration rates reach 5%, 10%, 30%, or 50%, the corresponding market sizes could be 94 billion, 188 billion, 565 billion, and 941 billion yuan respectively [47] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies like SF Express and other direct delivery companies, as well as the core components of unmanned logistics vehicles from an overseas perspective [4][43]