美国财政纪律松散，风险偏好回摆金价上行驱动有望回归

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The global risk appetite has begun to recover following the significant reduction of bilateral tariffs between China and the US on May 12, leading to a temporary strengthening of risk assets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1% and the Nasdaq increasing by 4.5% from May 12 to May 23 [3][10] - Despite the recovery in US equities, the dollar assets outside the US have not shown significant capital favor, with the dollar index declining by 2.6% during the same period, falling below the 100 mark [3][12] - The US credit rating was downgraded by Moody's on May 15, reflecting increased concerns over government debt and interest payment ratios, marking a complete downgrade by all three major rating agencies [4][14] - A large-scale fiscal spending bill was passed by the US House of Representatives on May 22, which is expected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade [5][15] - The combination of high inflation, high interest rates, and high debt levels in the US raises concerns about the sustainability of economic data, with potential adverse effects on the private sector [6][18] - Gold is viewed as a preferred asset in the current environment, with expectations that its value will continue to rise as market focus shifts back to fiscal and debt sustainability risks [6][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Global Economic Environment - The reduction of tariffs has led to a recovery in global risk appetite, with notable increases in US stock indices [3][10] - The dollar index has weakened, indicating a lack of significant capital inflow into dollar assets [3][12] Section 2: US Fiscal Policy and Credit Rating - Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating reflects growing concerns over fiscal discipline and debt levels [4][14] - The passage of a major fiscal spending bill is expected to exacerbate federal debt levels significantly [5][15] Section 3: Market Reactions and Asset Preferences - The current economic environment characterized by high inflation and debt levels may lead to a deterioration of hard economic data [6][18] - Gold is increasingly seen as a safe-haven asset, with expectations for its price to rise as market concerns about fiscal sustainability grow [6][19]