健之佳（605266）：业绩短期承压，静待行业恢复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][5] - The market price is reported at RMB 23.01 [3] Core Views - The company has faced short-term pressure on performance due to adjustments in medical insurance and tax issues, but there is potential for industry concentration to increase, and the company continues to grow its store count and has established a strong membership system and online business [3][5][8] - The company reported total revenue of RMB 9.283 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 128 million, a decrease of 69.08% [3][5] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was RMB 22.94 billion, a decrease of 0.85%, with a net profit of RMB 34 million, down 35.85% year-on-year [3][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 10.32 billion, with a growth rate of 11.2% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 263 million, showing a significant recovery from the previous year [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1.70, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5 [5][7] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has a stable growth in store count, reaching 5,486 stores by 2024, with a net increase of 370 stores [8] - The membership base has exceeded 26 million, with member consumption accounting for nearly 70% of total sales, providing a solid foundation for future growth [8] - The online business generated RMB 25.86 billion in revenue in 2024, representing 27.85% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 19.47% [8] Industry Outlook - The overall concentration in the pharmacy retail industry is expected to increase, with the current chain rate at 57.81%, indicating room for growth towards the 70% target set for 2025 [8] - The top 100 pharmaceutical retailers accounted for 37.8% of the total retail market, suggesting significant potential for market share expansion [8]