Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [6] Core Insights - The company is positioned as the leading player in the affordable tea beverage market, with a focus on expansion into lower-tier cities and international markets [15] - The company aims to leverage its supply chain efficiencies to enhance profitability and maintain growth momentum [14][39] - The projected revenue and net profit for 2024 are 24.83 billion RMB and 4.44 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3% and 41.4% [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1997, the company has grown to become the largest beverage chain globally, with over 46,479 stores expected by the end of 2024 [1][15] - The company has a strong focus on high-cost performance products priced between 2-8 RMB [21] Market Analysis - The ready-to-drink tea market is projected to reach approximately 310.9 billion RMB by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 19.7% from 2023 to 2028 [2] - The company holds a market share of 20.2% in the ready-to-drink tea segment, leading the competition [2] Growth Drivers - The growth formula is defined as store revenue multiplied by store count and supply chain efficiency [3] - Expected single-store revenue growth is projected at 4.8% for 2025, with a steady cost-sharing model [3] - The company plans to increase its store count significantly, with net additions of 7,700 to 8,930 stores from 2025 to 2027 [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 20.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 43.1 billion RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of 24.2% [5] - Net profit is projected to increase from 3.14 billion RMB in 2023 to 7.83 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24.8% [5] Investment Strategy - The company plans to utilize IPO proceeds to expand production capacity, enhance brand IP, and invest in digital transformation [42] - The target price for 2025 is set between 603.30 and 635.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 14.3% to 20.3% from the current price [6][39]
蜜雪集团（02097）：茶饮下沉与出海标杆，未来成长空间几何？