Macro Insights - Recent rise in Japanese super long-term bond yields is attributed to increased fiscal expansion concerns, weak domestic demand for long-term bonds, and poor auction results, leading to market pessimism about supply-demand balance [4][8] - The impact of rising Japanese bond yields on China's interest rates is limited, but it serves as a reminder that low interest rates may not persist indefinitely, even without clear economic recovery signs [9][10] Fixed Income - Japanese government debt reached a historical high of 2.539% for 20-year bonds, with 10-year and 30-year yields also at record levels, driven by fiscal risks, reduced bond purchases, and rising interest rate expectations [8][9] - The Japanese government debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 219.15% in Q1 2025, the highest among developed economies, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [8] Non-Ferrous Metals - A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi announced a production halt, stabilizing lithium prices around 60,000 yuan per ton, while cobalt remains in a tug-of-war between supply and demand [3][10] - Lithium prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand, despite some short-term price rebounds from production adjustments [11][12] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is projected to benefit from the gradual maturity of autonomous driving technologies, with recommendations for companies like XPeng Motors and Ideal Auto [29][30] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in China increased by 12% year-on-year in early May, with new energy vehicle sales up 32% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [30][31] Robotics - The recent robot combat competition showcased the advanced motion control capabilities of the Unitree G1 robot, highlighting its potential in the robotics market [24][25] - Investment recommendations include companies involved in high-precision reducers and joint drives for humanoid robots, emphasizing the importance of these components in robotic performance [31][33] Textile and Apparel - The apparel retail sector showed stable growth in April, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% in retail sales, although the overall performance was relatively weak compared to Q1 [27][28] - Recent quarterly reports from major overseas apparel brands indicate positive growth, particularly in the Greater China region, which is expected to drive future performance [27][28]
国泰海通晨报-20250527
国泰海通证券·2025-05-27 06:49