当前时点如何看水产料行业景气？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aquaculture feed industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - The current aquaculture prices are experiencing high prosperity due to alleviated supply-side pressures, leading to a year-on-year increase in the stocking volume of major species. The demand for aquaculture feed in the second and third quarters is expected to be strong. Additionally, the prices of feed raw materials have been fluctuating upwards this year, which historically suggests an acceleration in industry concentration, making the leading company, Haida Group, a favorable investment opportunity [2][4][14]. Summary by Sections Aquaculture Price Trends - After two years of inventory digestion in 2023 and 2024, the prices of major aquaculture species have rebounded to historically high levels. For instance, the price of grass carp reached 14 CNY/kg, a 25% increase from the beginning of the year. Other species like California bass and yellow catfish have also seen significant price increases, with California bass priced at 22.1 CNY/lb and yellow catfish at 15.8 CNY/lb as of May 9, 2023, both surpassing the highest prices since 2021. The overall high price environment is expected to boost feed demand [5][29]. Raw Material Price Fluctuations - The prices of aquaculture feed raw materials have shown an upward trend this year, with significant reliance on imports for key ingredients like soybean meal (83% of consumption), fish meal (81%), and rapeseed meal (16%). Historical data indicates that during years of heightened price volatility, Haida Group's market share in domestic aquaculture feed has increased. This is attributed to their superior pricing research, procurement capabilities, and financial strength to stockpile raw materials when prices are low [6][47][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report strongly recommends investing in Haida Group, highlighting several factors: the current high prices in aquaculture, a rebound in stocking volumes, and expected growth in feed demand, particularly for high-protein feeds. The company has a robust inventory of raw materials and strong pricing capabilities. Furthermore, Haida Group's overseas sales have shown a remarkable growth of 40% year-on-year in the first quarter, contributing significantly to profits. Projections for the company's main business performance are 3.9 billion CNY and 4.6 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a valuation of 10 billion CNY for the breeding segment [7][55][57].