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玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20250527
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Glass: If the low price persists, attention should be paid to the increase in cold - repair expectations. Although the valuation of glass is relatively low, the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [3]. -纯碱: The pressure on the futures market continues. Newly invested production capacity may gradually release output, and the maintenance cannot provide short - term support. With the cost decline, there is still profit in the industrial chain. It should be treated bearishly, and further price cuts by soda ash plants are needed for the continuous decline of soda ash prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash Price Range Forecast - Glass price range forecast (monthly): 900 - 1200, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 27.22%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 43.9% [2]. - Soda ash price range forecast (monthly): 1100 - 1400, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 29.95%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 44.9% [2]. 3.2 Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - Glass inventory management: For high - inventory situations, to prevent inventory losses, sell FG2509 glass futures at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 1100; sell FG509 call options at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 20 - 30, which can also lock in the spot selling price [2]. - Soda ash inventory management: For high - inventory situations, to prevent inventory losses, sell SA2509 soda ash futures at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 1350; sell SA509 call options at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50, which can also lock in the spot selling price [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Glass: The industrial chain faces over - supply pressure in the future; the off - season of demand and weak expectations have not triggered new cold - repair expectations [3]. - Soda ash: There is a consensus on over - supply expectations, and there are still new production capacities in the long - term; the cost continues to decline, and there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.4利多解读 - Glass: The supply side remains in a low - fluctuation state; the futures price is approaching the full - industrial - chain loss state; at low prices, cold - repair expectations are disturbing [3]. - Soda ash: The maintenance of manufacturers from May to June is gradually being realized; exports exceed expectations, alleviating the domestic over - supply pressure [3]. 3.5利空解读 - Glass: There is still ignition expectation on the supply side, and there is no large - scale cold - repair expectation; the actual demand is weak; the overall social inventory is high, and the off - season is coming [3]. - Soda ash: New production capacities continue to be put into operation; the social inventory is at an absolute historical high; there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.6 Glass Futures Price and Monthly Spread - On May 27, 2025, the price of glass 05 contract was 1127, down 3 (- 0.27%) from the previous day; the price of 09 contract was 1031, up 12 (1.18%); the price of 01 contract was 1084, up 3 (0.28%) [4][6]. - The monthly spread (5 - 9) was 96, down 15 from the previous day; the monthly spread (9 - 1) was - 53, up 9; the monthly spread (1 - 5) was - 43, up 6 [6]. 3.7 Glass Spot Price - On May 27, 2025, the average price of glass in the Shahe area was 1155.8, down 0.4 from the previous day [7]. - The prices of 5mm float glass in various regions remained unchanged on that day [7]. 3.8 Soda Ash Futures Price and Monthly Spread - On May 27, 2025, the price of soda ash 05 contract was 1268, down 20 (- 1.55%) from the previous day; the price of 09 contract was 1231, down 23 (- 1.83%); the price of 01 contract was 1212, down 25 (- 2.02%) [8]. - The monthly spread (5 - 9) was 37, up 3 (8.82%) from the previous day; the monthly spread (9 - 1) was 19, up 2 (11.76%); the monthly spread (1 - 5) was - 56, down 5 (9.8%) [8]. 3.9 Soda Ash Spot Price and Spread - On May 27, 2025, the prices of heavy and light soda ash in most regions remained unchanged, except that the heavy - soda ash price in the East China region decreased by 50 [8]. - The spread between heavy and light soda ash varied by region, with values such as 100 in North China, 50 in South China, etc. [8].