Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-05-27 11:26Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - Tariff cuts and emergency plant shutdowns have led to the valuation repair of styrene, with the styrene-pure benzene spread widening to a new high for the year. Driven by profits, some maintenance plants have returned ahead of schedule, and there is an expectation of increased supply. However, it will take time for the increased supply to result in port inventory accumulation. Currently, the May styrene paper cargo is at the end of the delivery period, and the short-covering demand of short sellers has strongly supported the May basis. In the short term, prices are supported, but in the medium to long term, styrene is about to enter the off-season of demand, and prices are expected to decline [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for styrene is in the range of 7,000 - 7,800 yuan/ton. The current 20-day rolling volatility is 29.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over the past three years is 85.5% [2]. Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished product inventory worried about styrene price drops, they can short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio and enter the market at 7,200 - 7,300 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (EB2507C7400) with a 50% hedging ratio and enter at 80 - 110 yuan [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio and enter the market at 7,050 - 7,150 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (EB2507P7000) with a 75% hedging ratio and enter at 90 - 120 yuan [2]. Core Contradictions - Tariff cuts and emergency plant shutdowns have led to styrene valuation repair, and the styrene-pure benzene spread has widened to a new high for the year. Driven by profits, some maintenance plants have returned ahead of schedule, increasing supply. However, it will take time for the increased supply to lead to port inventory accumulation. Currently, the May styrene paper cargo is at the end of the delivery period, and short-covering demand has strongly supported the May basis. In the short term, prices are supported, but in the medium to long term, styrene is about to enter the off-season of demand, and prices are expected to decline [3]. Bullish Factors - As of May 22, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 186,400 tons, a decrease of 26,200 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 12.32%, indicating a significant decline in factory inventory [4]. - The raw material inventory of current styrene downstream factories is low, and the replenishment demand provides some support for styrene prices [5]. Bearish Factors - As of May 26, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 143,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.72%. Starting from late May, previously traded European pure benzene has been arriving in Asia, and there are recent market rumors of new European-Asian pure benzene orders, so the subsequent import volume of pure benzene is expected to remain high [5]. - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, and many downstream plants have planned maintenance in May and June, resulting in a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [7]. - As of May 26, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 74,600 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period, a 44.19% increase [7]. - The 450,000-ton styrene plant of Shenghong and the 720,000-ton styrene plant of Li Huayi are planned to restart soon, increasing styrene supply [7]. - Styrene is gradually entering the off-season of demand [7]. Price and Spread Data - Various price and spread data for styrene, pure benzene, and related products on May 27, 2025, compared with previous days, including paper cargo prices, spot prices, basis, and production margins, are provided in detail [9][10][11].