SCC(SZ:002916) Goldman Sachs·2025-05-28 05:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shennan Circuits is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of Rmb152, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the current price of Rmb108.6 [9][12]. Core Insights - Shennan Circuits is positioned as a key supplier in the high-end PCB market in China, benefiting from domestic AI infrastructure investments, which are expected to drive robust revenue and net profit growth [9]. - The company is experiencing a strong demand for AI-related products, with overall PCB capacity utilization exceeding 90% and AI-related capacity running at full production [3][9]. - The ABF business is in the early ramp-up stage, with expectations of narrowing losses in 2025 due to cost control and increased revenue [4][9]. Summary by Sections Raw Material Costs - Raw material costs, particularly for gold and copper-related materials, are on the rise, prompting Shennan to negotiate prices with suppliers. Gold-related materials account for less than 10% of total procurement [2][9]. - Management plans to pass some of the cost increases to customers due to high overall demand and utilization levels [2]. PCB Outlook - The demand for PCBs is robust, driven by local AI needs, including AI accelerators and high-speed optical transceivers. This demand is expected to improve the product mix and gross margin outlook into 2Q~3Q25 [3][9]. ABF Business Status - The Guangzhou ABF plant reported a pre-tax loss of Rmb550 million in 2024, but management anticipates a reduction in losses for 2025, projecting revenues of over Rmb100 million [4][9]. - Monthly depreciation costs are expected to remain below Rmb30 million, with current costs at Rmb25 million [6][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from Rmb17,907 million in 2024 to Rmb26,694 million by 2027, with net income expected to rise from Rmb1,879 million in 2024 to Rmb4,014 million in 2027 [7][12].